And Now You Know Why Evil Will Always Triumph

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A simple analysis of the events in ^real-time(1). No matter which 1 of the levels in the Battlespace (Tactical, Operational or Strategic) of this War (or Combined Arms Police Action, equally of Mr. A. Martyanov's definition) Is incommunicable because in that location is the fog of war, the information nosotros are receiving is erstwhile, compromised, unsure. We do not have the full of it on real-time (not even the Staff in the High Control of the contending parties have it) nor are nosotros able to separate that quick the relevant from irrelevant, or existent from fake, propaganda from whatever…

A uncomplicated assay of the motivations or controlling processes in the heads of the persons in charge (such equally Pres. Zelensky or the Commission ⁽²⁾ represented by Pres. Biden) or any of the generals managing these operations is besides impossible. We can estimate their intentions, we can guess their motives from a visceral Point of view, but nosotros are not inside their heads.

If we try to answer the Question: is Ukraine going to win this state of war? We can obtain some Answers from a purely scientific Mathematical Perspective.

State of war is won or lost based on:

P1.- Logistics

P2.- Will to Fight ⁽³⁾

From P1.- we tin observe that in the Ukraine:

1. Supplies:

Much of it destroyed, depleted, or captured. What is left is beingness used and suffering attrition. No possibilities of quick resupply past local production or past imports due to b) c) d) e)

1. Airports:

All-important military and Ceremonious Airports neutralized or destroyed.

1. Ports:

All important Civilian and Military Ports and Transit Hubs neutralized or destroyed

1. Roads:

All Roads east of the Line Koroshen-Zythomir-Vinitsa-Yampil neutralized or under fire control of artillery and VVS. All Roads west of this line are at least nether fire control of VVS, and/or standoff weaponry.

1. Railroads:

All lines westward of the Line Koroshen-Zythomir-Vinitsa-Yampil cutting in i or more points, neutralized or under fire control of arms and VVS. All lines west of this line are at to the lowest degree under fire command of VVS and/or standoff weaponry.

From P2.- we can observe that in the Ukraine, once supplies are depleted, Ukrainian Forces tin can:

1. Fight with sticks and stones and die (immediately)
2. They tin run and die (a fiddling bit subsequently)
3. They tin can hide and die (somewhat later)
4. Fly the land abroad and alive⁽⁴⁾ (with resentment and fear, because you never know when a Spetsnaz team can pay a visit at home)
5. Surrender and live a normal life (if they are not guilty of state of war crimes and such)

Conclusions:

War is simply Mathematics ⁽⁷⁾

Mathematics never lie ⁽⁸⁾

At this hour of the night, I should be sleeping… dammit these interesting times! ⁽⁹⁾

1. An Analysis a Posteriori can always exist washed; yous tin even earn a Ph D. on it.  But for the purposes of this Essay, nosotros are not taking them into account. We do not desire to suspension the laws of causality in this timeline, collapsing information technology.
2. Committee: the only blazon of animate being with many legs (a lot, really a lot of them) just no encephalon.
3. Nether the effect of "VVS bombardment" and "Large Bear running after you lot" modifiers P2 → 0
4. This pick is the favored one past Nazi and Bandera fans.  Canada, the United states, and maybe some European countries are the preferred destination
5. H2W2 acronym for "How to Win War" based on the research and studies of John D. O. E.
6. Merely in case, if you oasis't understood a Discussion of this: UKRAINE IS GOING TO LOSE BIG! I doubt it will be anymore by this twenty-four hour period next month.
7. Read what Mr. A. Martyanov accept to say about war, if you are still unsure after reading his Three Books about armed services supremacy, enquire any child of age 12 when they come up back home the twenty-four hour period of a Math'southward Exam. Math is State of war.
8. This simply applies to normal timelines… in some wokefied timelines it might be considered racist, gender fluid intolerant, or politically incorrect that 2+two=4.
9. This Essay was based on a comment on Telegram nearly the Fact that Russian Forces are cutting all Railway Lines in the Ukraine, making resupply for the Kiev Government virtually impossible, I think I lost my mind somewhere in Paragraph iii…

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Source: https://thesaker.is/amateurs-think-strategy-generals-think-logistics-or-why-ukraine-is-doomed/